Hi Folks,

We are two weeks past Election Day and several California U.S. House and legislative contests and one state ballot proposition remain too close to call.

In Southern California's Congressional District 45, Republican incumbent Michelle Steele has seen her lead over Democratic challenger Derek Tran shrink from a high of 5.1 percent the morning after Election Day to 0.01 percent on Saturday; on Monday, Tran took the lead by 102 votes. His lead has grown a bit since then but is still incredibly narrow, with just 314 votes currently separating the two candidates and an estimated 72,000 ballots remaining to process in the counties that are home to this district as of the vote count this morning. 

Another congressional race that is still too close to call is the Central Valley's CD 13, where Republican incumbent John Duarte has seen his lead over Democratic challenger Adam Gray shrink from a high of 2.9 percent the morning after Election Day to 1.1 percent on Saturday, and further reduced to just 0.1 percent as of this morning. This amounts to just 227 votes separating the two candidates, with an estimated 54,000 ballots remaining to process in the counties that are home to this district.

In state legislative contests, several races also remain too close to call: Senate District 35, with a 1.1 percent margin; SD 37 with a 1.5 percent margin, Assembly District 45 with a 2.2 percent margin, AD 58 with a 0.3 percent margin (488 votes); and AD 74 with a 1.6 percent margin. Proposition 34 is also still undecided. 

As Yue Stella Yu wrote in today's CalMatters story about the Close Count Transparency Project:

"Some prominent conservatives, including GOP U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are spreading unproven claims that Democrats are “stealing” the 45th Congressional District race in Southern California, where Democrat Derek Tran is leading by a razor-thin margin over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel after trailing her for days. 

"“We wanted to create a record of where the vote count stood each day, so that if someone came along later and said, ‘Something hinky is going on here,’ there would be a reliable source of information people could turn to to see how the vote count evolved over time,” Alexander said.

"The tracker also comes as frustration about the lengthy process grows in California. State Assemblymember Joe Patterson, a Rocklin Republican, called the procedure “dumb” on social media, arguing that winners of state legislative races will be sworn in Dec. 2, before the results are certified by the Secretary of State. The lengthy process “sows distrust” in the state’s election system, he told KCRA. 

"The state Assembly and Senate already held a joint freshman orientation last week for incoming lawmakers, while the five legislative races remain too close to call, Assembly Republicans spokesperson Jim Stanley confirmed to CalMatters." 

Meanwhile, Politico's California Playbook reported yesterday on California's long vote count, noting that Democratic challenger Derek Tran in CD 45 had recruited more than 100 volunteers to contact voters in an effort to cure ballots. Presumably other campaigns in tight races are similarly conducting post-election voter outreach to voters they believe support them and have challenged ballots that are eligible to cure.

According to the Secretary of State's Unprocessed Ballots Status report as of last night, approximately 570,000 ballot remain to be processed statewide, nearly 15.7 million ballots have been counted, and about 126,000 are eligible to cure. 

At the national level, the Associated Press has called 213 House races for Democrats, 218 for Republicans and four remain to be called, two of which are in California. While it is clear the Republicans have achieved the majority they need to control the House, the question remains of how slim that majority will be. 

CVF will continue to track these contests through our Close Count Transparency Project and contest tracker and provide updated vote counts daily until elections are certified by counties in early December.

-- Kim Alexander, California Voter Foundation